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Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Links - 7th May 2024 (2 - History Extra Quoting)

Surviving Hitler and Stalin | HistoryExtra - "‘The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact divides Poland in two. The Germans come from one end when the Russians invade from the other end. The first reaction of some Poles was they'd come to save us from the Nazis, in fact they were in alliance with the Nazis and they had come to take their part of the deal, their end of the deal and they then set about trying to destroy the elite of Poland and when I say Elite, what the the Nazis meant by Elite, uh everybody who was Jewish, some of whom happened to be shopkeepers, and the Soviets meant by that people who happened to be shopkeepers, some of whom happened to be Jews. And they mean by Elite everybody who was a teacher. Everybody who'd been in the Army. Anybody who had religious practice. Anybody who was in touch with a philatelist or or spoke spoke Esperanto. Anyone with any international connection at all. And all of those people they regarded as an elite and they began to arrest them... No one ever asked my father to tell his story. I'm sure he'd have happily done so. But no one was interested in knowing about Stalin's crimes and the Katyn  massacres and um the deportation he faced, so he never was asked um to do any of these things… because the Soviets were on the winning side and nobody was interested in what they'd done… had it not been for the fact that the association of Jewish refugees has a project of taking the testimony of refugees, it might have been much more difficult for me to turn that childhood knowledge into a book’"

Secrets of ancient Chinese tombs | HistoryExtra - "‘Horses can't be easily bred in China, they have to be brought in from the far north, towards Mongolia where the conditions are better for breeding horses. China's really too hot, too humid and lacks certain nutrition in the soil’...
‘Some tombs are deliberately looted, and some are looted in ancient times. So the royal tombs of the Shang Kings buried before 1000 BC, those have all been looted, and they were probably looted immediately by their successors who are called the Zhou, because we can see that there are enormous pits dug down, straight down in the middle of the tombs. They must have been easily located, they perhaps had small buildings on top of them, and it's very important for the succeeding Dynasty to do away with the power of the ancestors of the preceding Dynasty. So, it's a confirmation to us,  telling us that the Zhou leaders feared the ancestors of the Shang Kings… quite a lot of trouble is taken to hide Royal tombs and in some areas they were successful probably, because we've never found them. What later happens is they put great mounds on them. That makes it harder to dig in’"

How did empire shape modern Britain? | HistoryExtra - "‘During the 1950s British people are kind of going to these places to make new lives but white British people, Australia in particular has a very kind of string migration policy called the white Australia policy which means it's white British people are particularly welcome to go to Australia. White British people seem to talk about immigration during the 1950s without ever really acknowledging that they are also a nation of migrants. There's this huge outflow as well as a huge inflow that that never really comes up right when people talk about Imperial immigration...People who migrated to Britain across the 20th century, did these people view themselves in general as as Imperial subjects? Did they view themselves as British citizens? How did they conceptualize the idea of Britishness and the idea of Empire and how did those kind of things intertwine?’  ‘You often when you read, reading the accounts of people who are coming to Britain, you often see this huge moment of disillusionment, because they had been you know put through school systems, in the colonies where they had been told, you know, you're part of the British Empire, they learned about, you know, what they often refer to as the mother country. They often talk about England as the mother country or Britain, you know you see lots of accounts of people saying, oh you know, I could name all of the lakes in the Lake District. In my Village School in Kenya I could, I could tell you the name of every river in England. You know this is what, but that their kind of education was totally framed about learning around England and Britain but actually predominantly England, and they had this real sense of you know, you're part of kind of particularly into the sort of mid 20th century, you're part of this Imperial Community, and then they come to Britain and they find themselves unwelcome and they find themselves a target of of real explicit racism, and so for a lot of people there's this real moment of kind of psychic crisis I think. The writer Donald Hines who wrote a memoir about his migration called Journey to an Illusion which which is a title which gives you a kind of sense of his feelings about this. He's part loosely, kind of part of the Windrush generation, and he interviewed lots of his friends about migration and one of the accounts in the book is about coming to Britain and seeing white British street sweepers. It's like white men cleaning the streets in London. And and the narrative is like you know this person's heart just sinks because he says if this is the kind of jobs that white people are doing in the UK what, you know what jobs are there? They're not going to give us jobs, right. They're not going to be happy with us being their bosses and if if these jobs are being done by white people, we're not going to be included in this, we're going to be completely excluded... This country that's like poor, it's it's gray. You know there's no food in the shops. There's, you know, what this like this is what we were being told was this wonderful beacon of civilization'"
I like how she admits that she says that she refuses to change her mind to consider that Empire might have been a good thing

Did our ancestors really think the world was flat? | HistoryExtra - "‘When Aristotle first suggested it this was a really radical idea, and some of his contemporaries must have thought it was completely bonkers. And some really quite big name Greek philosophers like Epicurus didn't believe it. The Roman epicurian Lucius for instance who is often held up as almost being a kind of protoo scientist, but he was convinced that the Earth was flat and and in his book On the Nature of Things he mocks people who think it might be a sphere saying well obviously anything on the other side of the world would indeed just fall off. It spread relatively slowly over the next few centuries but I think in the Roman world it was really helped because of the cachet of Greek thought. And if you were an up and coming Roman you sent your children off to Athens to be educated and you wanted to show that you were you know totally on top of all the trendy thinking coming out of ancient Greece. And one of those things was that the Earth was spherical. So in a way you could feel smugly superior to ordinary people because you were aware of this and you knew your Greek philosophy but gradually it became better known in the Roman world. For example Roman emperors started putting globes onto their coins as sort of to represent their power over the world’...
‘After around about 700, 750 AD, we don't find any sign of anybody who was vaguely literate believing that the Earth was anything other than a sphere, it becomes very much a commonplace. And it's also a common place in medieval art and even medieval poetry for instance. The troubadors of France, they seem to be aware that the Earth was a sphere. So probably common people may well have known it, as well. In one poem, Alexander the Great is presented with an apple, and he takes this as as a symbol of the world that he's about to conquer. So obviously he was aware that the Earth was round. And of course kings and queens, they were presented with an orb when they were crowned, there there's a picture of it happening in the Bayeux Tapestry, and that orb represents the Earth, it represents the secular power of the king under God, because it has a cross on top of it. And presumably if  people in the Middle Ages had believed that the Earth was flat they would have presented their king with a dinner plate rather than with an orb... I think it's very clear that the people who wrote the Bible or the Vedas or, or the Quran, they assumed that the Earth resembled traditional cosmology, they assumed it was flat...
I went into [writing the book] very much of the view that the globe is counter intuitive and if I had been born in China 500 years ago I would have been a convinced flat earther because that's what I would have learned at school and I therefore was quite surprised at how defensive a lot of people are about the idea that people in the past in one culture or another believed in traditional cosmologies. Of course they did but I've read entire books on Chinese science which don't mention the Chinese picture of the Earth at all. Or try to gloss over it or try to suggest that actually it wasn't what they really thought, or it didn't matter, or something along those lines. And similarly in the Roman world there just seem to be an assumption that as soon as one person was able to articulate Aristotle's theory, everyone would immediately accept it. But that's not how things work out at all’"

Tokyo’s devastating 1923 earthquake | HistoryExtra - "'People in Tokyo, A, they have grown up being taught that people in Korea, people in China are backward in terms of, relative level of civilization Japan sees itself as being the great modernizer, and modernized nation in Asia. Also there's a a heavy racial tinge to that. These people are lesser in all sorts of ways, and the expectation is that Koreans who live in Japan will feel not terribly good about their colonization and might take the opportunity of chaos like an earthquake and a fire to resist, to rise up against the authorities. And so a rumor starts to go around that Koreans in Tokyo are setting fires of their own, so they're making these fires much much worse, that they are maybe even plotting bombs, that they're doing all sorts of things to try and, at last, get some kind of payback for what the Japanese authorities have been doing on the Korean Peninsula. And it's really difficult now to know how exactly this happened, people think that it was some combination of thugs and opportunists. People who were seeking to raid Koreans’ homes and get something. Others who were, yeah, simply awful people looking for a fight. The result we think was about, and it's an incredible number, about 6,000 Korean people were killed, over the course of these few days after the earthquake. And they were killed you know in the most brut, brutal of ways. Thrown down wells, they were sort of chopped up with whatever blades people had in their houses, they were physically beaten up. And one extra element which seems to made it worse is that parts of the Japanese Armed Forces who were sent in quite quickly under martial law after the earthquake and parts of the Tokyo Police Force, some of the men who serve in those two institutions have not long come back from service on the Korean Peninsula. And to put it mildly they don't feel particularly warmly about Koreans. So far from trying to quell this violence, which is hard anyway, you know in a period of such chaos, they seem actually to be getting involved. Egging people on, helping them out and making it possible for this you know extraordinary slaughter to go ahead...
In 1945 it was roughly a quarter of the city destroyed. So not quite as devastating as 1923, but that's a a weird thing to say when you got 100,000 people losing their lives. And interestingly I think it was in the early 1960s or so the Japanese emperor emperor Hirohito made this comment… had they rebuilt Tokyo properly, done the more expensive job in 1923, those fires that killed so many tens of thousands of people in 1945 just wouldn't have been possible'"

Big questions of the Crimean War: the build up | HistoryExtra - "The crisis begins not in the Crimea or indeed in Turkey. It begins in the holy places in Palestine with a dispute between Roman Catholic and Orthodox Greek monks about who should place their emblems in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. There is then a serious riot on the streets of Bethlehem and men of faith are killed by other men of faith using religious instruments as their weapons. The Turks think this is absurd but the Russians then demand a protectorate, the French demand a protectorate over these places, and so the Protectors of Catholicism and Orthodox Christianity are on the verge of war over who should bully the Turks most, about something the Turks care very little about. The British are involved not because of the religious issue but because if this issue of the future of Turkey is opened it will have implications for the British. The British want this to go away, they want the Russians and the French to stop bullying the Ottoman Empire and they want to negotiate a settlement. This doesn't happen, the Russians refuse to back down. They seize Ottoman territory essentially what is now modern day Romania and they demand that the Turks make major concessions which would have undermined the integrity of the Ottoman Empire. Eventually the Ottomans get bored waiting for something to happen so they start the war. In October 1853 they crossed the Danube and attack the Russians"

Big questions of the Crimean War: into the Valley of Death | HistoryExtra - "Britain is the dominant Marine engineering and shipbuilding power. So the British have the latest weapons, the latest engines and the most number of powerful warships. They have the largest navy by manpower as well. But what happens at a cusp in technology? So while, if you look at the pictures it looks remarkably like the Battle of Waterloo. They're all dressed up in very colorful uniforms, marching in very tight formations. Most of the British and French troops are armed with rifles, not with muskets. Musket is accurate to about 50 Paces. A rifle is accurate to about 300. And this is a transformational moment on the battlefield. The Russians don't have rifles. Or very very few of them. So in any kind of infantry firefight the Russians are going to lose. And they're going to lose a lot of men in the process. And that happens in all of the Infantry fighting in the Crimea. It's why the Russians fight behind walls. It's the only way they can avoid getting slaughtered in the open field by superior technology. The Allies are even using rifled canon in the siege of Sebastopol as well, although not very many. Russia doesn't have access to high technology. It can't manufacture rifles. It can't import them because of the British blockade. And so it's condemned to fight this war with the weapons of Borodino, whereas the British and French are using the latest high technology rifles. That is a major transformation. Even more significant, everybody will be familiar with the famous Charge of the Light Brigade. And the most scientific thing the British took to the Crimea was horsepower. The British breeding program had produced some amazing horses. Big powerful fast horses that could cover long distances with fully equipped troopers on board. They absolutely transformed the nature of the cavalry charge from a short dash to a very long sustained gallop. It meant that when the British collided with the Russians on horseback the Russians were simply knocked out of the way by these much bigger stronger faster horses. And after the Charge of the Light Brigade the Russians never again came out on horseback to engage with the British...  but even things like mass-produced rations, the British are using machine made products where the Russians are using things that are handmade. And the supply lines are different. British logistics into the Crimea are better than Russian ,logistics because the British have 3,000 miles to cover with a steamship. The Russians are having to drag their stores over the steppe in winter and they're losing a lot of men and draft animals and a lot of supplies. So the Russians are actually out supplied in their own country... Napoleon always said this. He would rather fight two brilliant generals on the other side than one ordinary one, because the two brilliant men would disagree and nothing much would happen. Whereas one ordinary general could at least make a decision'...
‘The Charge of the Light Brigade’...
‘Lord Tennyson's great poem, the problem of of which is it's wholly inaccurate. He wrote it having read an initial report of the battle which suggested that the Light Brigade had been pretty much wiped out. He'd finished it when he found out that that wasn't the case but it was so good he published it anyway. So it's a piece of fiction... The first thing that turns up is the Times report from William Howard Russell who's on the spot. And he generates this idea that these men were massacred in almost entirely due to the incompetence of their aristocratic officers, so there's a class war element in the initial report. These posh guys have led these working-class fellows to their deaths and isn't that terrible? And Russell got it wrong, he had the numbers of men who mustered at the end of the charge. That's only the men who were able to ride back up the valley on unwounded and horses that were still fit enough to ride. Rost of the horses were either blown or wounded and were not able to get back to the muster line in time to be mustered. So, the real figures is 120 who didn't come back rather than 120 was all that came back. He later corrected himself, but by that time Tennyson had written the poem and expressed the sentiments which are in the poem. The battle becomes such a cause celebre that there's a court of inquiry held on the conduct of Lord Lucan who ordered the charge and Lord Cardigan who presided over it... Neither Lucan nor Cardigan are particularly admirable human beings so it's very easy to throw a lot of blame on them. Then Lord Raglan's life is written up in a grand style to exculpate him from being, from responsibility. So it's, it's serving a lot of agendas. A lot of people have a stake in this battle being something other than what it really was’"

Big questions of the Crimean War: aftermath and legacy | HistoryExtra - "Florence Nightingale is is a very interesting phenomenon. The one thing that the press wants in this war is a middle-class hero. And of course British wars are fought by aristocratic officers and working-class soldiers. The middle classes stay at home, make money and read the newspapers. So the nearest thing they find to a middle class hero is a heroine, using the old vernacular, who’s only just middle class. Florence is very posh, you know. She's not called Florence for fun, she was born in Florence. Her sister is called Parthenope, she was born in Naples. You know there, and she knows most of the Cabinet quite well, some of them very well. So she's very posh, very well connected and her job is not the nursing thing, it's the management. She's the hospital manager who turns a ramshackle effort to support the wounded into something that actually delivers. So she's taking control of organizations that are trying to help but don't really know how. She has the experience both of practical and a managerial level to create an organization that can deliver more effect.  It's not entirely clear that what she did in the war saved that many lives. Some of the statistics which she collected suggested that her hospital at scutari wasn't particularly successful in in saving men's lives. But it was successful in improving the conditions in which they were operating, so in that sense it may have worked. The Russians have ladies doing the same job in Sevastopol, so it's it's a kind of universal thing. The French already did. The French army always had taken um women with them who worked in essentially doing, delivering that effect. The British army had not. And so for the British army it was a bit of a shock. But the latest research makes it quite clear the the medical problems in the Crimea were solved by the Army's own doctors in the Crimea, not by Florence Nightingale down on the, near Istanbul. She was dealing with evacuated casualties, but the Crimean disease problems were solved in the Crimea by pretty straightforward contemporary medical knowledge... Florence nightingale's obsession wasn't with nursing as with sanitation. She was obsessed with, with cleanliness… that's her main contribution. The clean thing is is is where she's coming from. Hospitals were filthy and she understood that filth and disease went together... the heart of the war is a struggle for global strategic and economic dominance between Britain and Russia, and the British don't lose this war. The grand old late Victorian version of the war leaves you with the impression that somehow the British didn't really win. They did. Um, Russia was shattered as a pre-industrial state. It was forced to rebuild itself to, with revolutionary  consequences. This war opened up the Russian population's access to great cities and great cities are where great revolutions come from. Without this war you don't get a Russian Revolution, you don't get transformational change in Russia. It makes France briefly once again the dominant military power in Western Europe, but that's only briefly. As then knocked over by by revived Germany in 1871. So for 1871 onwards Britain is actually in a very strong position because the Germans are not a threat to British interests, the French are now worried about the Germans, and the Russians are not in a position to operate either. The last 30 years of the 19th century are a great period for Britain because it doesn't face a major strategic threat. So this war has finished the Russians, the Franco-Prussian wars finished the French, and the new German Empire until 1900 isn't looking at being a challenge to Britain’...
‘Putin does idolize Tsar Nicholas the First. The state portrait of Tsar Nicholas hangs in his, the anteroom of his office, I'm informed. And when the guardsman opens the door to let Putin through for his audience, that's a Romanov Double Eagle on the door and the guardsman is wearing the uniform of a mid-19th century Russian guards regiment. Putin is a Russian imperial revivalist. He's not post-Soviet, he's not a Communist, he's a Russian imperialist. And we have to understand that what we're dealing with in 2023 is a Russian Empire that wants to extend its control over territories that in the 1850s were part of Russia. So if you read the book that, that Putin reads, it's perfectly natural the Crimea should be part of Russia’
 ‘So this modern war has very much its roots firmly back in the 19th century and before, before then’
 ‘Really the thing everybody forgets is that Russia is different to most of the rest of Europe because it was occupied for 200 years by the Mongols. The Mongols created modern Russia. It's an administrative element of the Golden Horde’s Empire. And they created a regime in which nobody had any personal rights or any property rights, that political power was unaccountable and everything within the Empire belonged to the autocrat. Nothing has changed. So we're looking at a massive cultural division between Western Europe and the Russian lands. Everywhere where the Mongols operated is a different part of the world to the Western Europeans who avoided that'"

Tom Holland on Rome’s golden age | HistoryExtra - "‘The emperor Trajan and he presides over the Roman Empire at its height. Do you think there's a case to be made that he was Rome's greatest Emperor?’
 ‘Well he was called by the Romans the Optimus Princeps, so the best of Emperors and and that is how he is commemorated. Not just by the Romans but intriguingly right the way into the Christian period, so Christians when they look back at Trajan couldn't bear the thought that this great emperor um because he hadn't been converted to Christianity might have ended up in hell. And so they um they they came up with all kinds of um stories to uh suggest that perhaps he'd got a pass uniquely and had made it into heaven. My personal take is actually that Trajan is vastly overrated. He wins this great victory in in Dacia but he is essentially encouraged by that to aim at um conquests that over stretch Roman resources. Um and he does what has been disastrous to so many subsequent Western leaders - he invades Iraq. So the only real rival, geopolitical rival that the Romans take seriously on their own borders is the Parthian Empire... He sees a ship sailing away and he asks where is that ship sailing and he's told oh it's off to India and he kind of um he expresses an Alexander the Great type lament that he you know that he he can't follow in Alexander's footsteps and conquer Indiahimself but the truth is that  even conquering Mesopotamia has overstretched his resources and he essentially dies amid the implosion of those conquests.  Um and it's left to Hadrian his successor basically to clear up the mess. There's a point when Trajan is dying. Not only are his recent conquests in Mesopotamia are imploding but there's a massive uh Judean revolt that is kind of general across much of the Mediterranean. There seems to have been massive turbulence in Britain, in Mauritania, across the Empire and um I think when Trajan dies there's a very real chance that the whole fabric of the Empire is on the point of implosion. I think an emperor has to be judged by his legacy and I think actually Trajan's legacy is not nearly what it seems to be. The reason that a veil is cast over that by subsequent historians is that Hadrian does his job very well. Hadrian very very discreetly clears up the mess and because Hadrian is Trajan's heir, Hadrian has no, no stake in blaming Trajan'...
‘The year of the four Emperors was something of an aberration’
‘It's expressive I think of something that is a problem for Roman statecraft right the way up to the very end of the Empire. Which is that although the Roman Empire has become a monarchy, it hasn't become a kingship. Rome was originally ruled by Kings and the Kings got thrown out Rome, became a Republic. And the memory of that doesn't never entirely goes. The word King remains a dirty one for the Romans. And so therefore the question of how an emperor is to be succeeded is always a live one...
He comes to be seen as a very kind of brutal tyrant by the senatorial elites, but Domitian abs-, of course doesn't see himself as a tyrant. He sees himself as instituting policies that are designed to appease the gods. To restore the Roman world to the equilibrium that it previously enjoyed. And in the long run I mean who's to say that he, he wasn't right? Because it's under Domitian essentially that the Roman Empire does get put back on an even keel’"

Ancient Egyptian religion: everything you wanted to know | HistoryExtra - "'The King… the only Egyptian technically who can communicate between the gods and the people and he worships them. If you might have noticed, if you look at pictures of Egyptian temples, that the pictures on the walls all show the King making the offerings because technically that's what happened. Actually in in real life of course the King couldn't make every offering in in every temple in Egypt because there were way too many of them and some of these Gods needed offerings every hour. So he had priests who helped him'...
‘How many gods and goddesses were there, and who are some of the more significant ones?’
‘I would say well over a thousand, but it is difficult. Because sometimes a God can have several names. And sometimes Gods come together to form a sort of compound God. And sometimes very odd things like inanimate objects can be treated as a God so for example a birthing brick. Birthing bricks are what women squatted on when they're in labor. But there is a deity that actually looks like a birthing brick. So it seems that almost anything in ancient Egypt could be worshipped...  Although the these are Gods who are parents to other gods, they don't look like each other. So Osiris looks like a mummy. Isis looks like a woman. But Horus is a hawk... I don't imagine that the Egyptians themselves imagined the gods looking like a man with a crocodile head or looking in the case of Hathor like a woman with a cow head. I think this is how the artist depicted the gods. That they wanted to show the nature of the Gods. So they would show a human body which was capable of sitting on a throne or holding offerings or presenting things. And then they would put an animal head on which would show the nature of the person...  Classical people back home tended to see Egyptian religion as being very basic. Basically they worshiped animals and actually it's far more subtle and complex than that. They're not just worshiping animals, they're worshiping maybe a co-like essence in the form of a woman. It's far more complicated. It's very difficult for us to understand it because we don't have it explained to us. We, we're picking it up from archaeology and um from writings and and it's difficult for us. But I think we have consistently underestimated how complex this, this situation is'"

New Zealand: everything you wanted to know | HistoryExtra - "‘The Scots were very important for New Zealand, they're actually, New Zealand's one of the most Scottish places on Earth outside Scotland. Um Nova Scotia and Ontario and Canada may be competitors. But especially southern New Zealand was largely settled by Presbyterian Scots. Not just in the 1840s when the foundational, 1848 I think, was the foundational settlement. But that Scots attracted Scots and they became an important part of the population, I think about 24% of the population, so they played the role in New Zealand of Catholic Irish in Australia, they're about the same proportion. So New Zealand was less Catholic Irish, although they were also quite significant and important. And more Scottish than Australia. And this had all sorts of effects on Pākehā culture which is more Scottish than Australian culture, arguably to this day...
This is one of the things that bewilders the history of the uh the historians of the, all the British dominions. You know you cannot put your finger on when Canada, Australia or New Zealand became independent. There are various dates for New Zealand. One is 1856 when a colonial government was set up with its own Premier. The central government on top of that of the provinces. And you could say that was a date for Independence. There were, there was de-, when New Zealand became a Dominion in, um was it 1908. And then uh when New Zealand um sort of belatedly adopted the notion of independent but associated nations that was the kind of formula for the British dominions which was, I think 1949. And then you could argue that it was as late as uh 1973 when uh Britain ran off with the Frenchmen and joined the European Economic Community. Or, or alternatively joined the Franco German commune, as New Zealanders used to say at the time. Because even at that late date New Zealand did a, did a lot of its trade with Britain. In fact 1966 was I think…  the last date in which more than half of New Zealand's exports went to Britain, 12,000 miles away. So there was an intimate economic and cultural relationship between Britain and New Zealand, such that New Zealanders actually saw themselves as Britons, but not in a colonially cringy way. They thought themselves as better Britons, you know as demonstrated on the battlefield, on the rugby field and in the climbing of mountains. And to a surprising extent they're accepted not as better Britons but as kind of near enough to British. You know they might be the odd sneer, but no more than towards a Scott or a Yorkshireman...
 New Zealand was one of the big three of the Tasman world, and its interaction with Australia was, was pretty strong. Uh then when the Depression hit in 1890, if the Australians had federated then, New Zealand probably would have joined. But the nature of these federations, in Canada, in Australasia, in Southern Africa, was essentially that they were attempts to restore credit when the colonizing crusade had stalled. You know, there was a bust and no one would lend to these, um, these bankrupt colonial governments anymore, or near bankrupt. And so they federated to sort of renew the brand and uh that's what happened in Canada in 1867, or whatever it was. That's what happened in uh in Australia around about 1900 where the bust lasted longer than in New Zealand uh and because of that, New Zealand didn't join. But the notion of it being entirely separate from Australia in the 19th century is a bit of a myth, because at the time the Tasman Sea was more of a bridge than a barrier.'"

I May Have Gender Dysphoria. But I Still Prefer to Base My Life on Biology, Not Fantasy

I May Have Gender Dysphoria. But I Still Prefer to Base My Life on Biology, Not Fantasy

"Feelings and opinions have displaced facts and evidence in many areas of the liberal arts. This is nothing new. A more recent phenomenon, however, is the extension of this trend into the realm of biology, which has fallen victim to the idea that men can become women—and vice versa—merely by reciting a statement of belief. It is an insidious movement that combines the postmodern contempt for objective truth with pre-modern religious superstitions regarding the nature of the human soul.

The subordination of science to myth was exemplified in the recent British case of Maya Forstater, who’d lost her job after pointing out the plain truth that transgender people like me cannot change our biological sex by proclamation. “I conclude from…the totality of the evidence, that [Forstater] is absolutist in her view of sex and it is a core component of her belief that she will refer to a person by the sex she considered appropriate,” concluded Judge James Tayler at her employment tribunal. “The approach is not worthy of respect in a democratic society.”

I’m not sure where that leaves me, a British transgender person who agrees with Forstater. As I know better than most, sex is immutable... As a scientist, I know this to be a fact. It’s Judge Tayler who’s the absolutist here: Under the guise of tolerance, he’s put the force of law behind a cultish movement that treats biological reality in much the same way that the Catholic Church once treated Galileo and his heliocentric ideas. Just like its medieval forbears, this neo-religious crusade demands that adherents chant an absurdist liturgy—in this case, “Transwomen are women. Transmen are men.”...

I made up a t-shirt with my own slogan: “Transwomen are men. Get over it.” It caused considerable outrage. But my question was sincere: Why can’t we, as trans people, just get over it? It’s merely another political slogan. What does it matter if we are men or women in some technical sense, so long as we can live our lives in peace, free from abuse, harassment and discrimination?

In recent months, I have been accused of hate speech and reported to my professional colleagues, while newspaper reports suggest that I am at risk of being banned from an LGBT committee connected to my trade union...

The most obvious problem with gender ideology is that it is entirely circular. It’s like defining an airline pilot as someone who just has that indescribable “feeling” of being an airline pilot. When Massachusetts legislators tried to nail down the idea of gender identity in legislation, for instance, the best they could come up with was “a person’s gender-related identity, appearance or behavior, whether or not that gender-related identity, appearance or behavior is different from that traditionally associated with the person’s physiology or assigned sex at birth.”

Moreover, when people begin trying to get around this circularity by actually detailing what it means to “feel like” a woman, they typically just catalogue a bunch of sexist stereotypes about how they always liked the idea of wearing dresses and maybe played with dolls as a child.

Yes, gender dysphoria is a real condition. I know, because I have it: the feeling that my male biology is at odds with my desire to have a female body. But I don’t have to invent some mystical spiritual force called gender identity to explain it.

Just as there is no single cause of chest pain or headaches, there doesn’t need to be a single cause of gender dysphoria. But there is a well-observed typology. In the 1980s, American-Canadian sexologist Ray Blanchard proposed that transsexualism (as it was then commonly called) in males generally manifested as either (1) effeminate gay men seeking to further accentuate their appeal to other men (homosexual transsexualism, or HSTS); or (2) heterosexual autogynephiles—self-attracted men who prefer to conceive of themselves as women—who typically come out as trans women later in life (and often to the great surprise of family and friends). The most vocal and aggressive proponents of trans rights—biological males who often will express themselves aggressively to women who bring up the issue of biology—appear to be drawn disproportionately from this second, autogynephilic category.

Transsexualism in females appears to be substantially different, and more rooted in socially propagated factors, as suggested by the recent vast increase in the number of teenage girls being referred to gender-identity clinics (sometimes originating in self-reinforcing clusters of friends or classmates). As former Tavistock governor Marcus Evans recently wrote in Quillette, this is the first time in recorded clinical practice that females outnumbered males in this treatment area. Moreover, the girls who present as transgender are now disproportionately autistic, and affected with other developmental and mental-health conditions—which is consistent with the observation that many adolescent trans children aren’t driven by some mysterious gendered force field.

And yet, reporting on these facts in the scientific literature remains difficult. Lisa Littman of Brown University—who first published on the phenomenon now known as Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria (or ROGD)—has been denounced as a transphobe, and concerted attempts were made to smear her research. Scientists in the field note that it is relatively easy to get a study published if it supports the idea of “affirming” a child’s self-conception, but difficult to impossible if the data leads to another conclusion.

As noted above, my own experience leads me to believe that efforts to protect gender ideology from critique are most vigorously led by a specific and identifiable sub-section within the trans community. Autogynephilic males who abruptly declare themselves to be trans often experience a sense of insecurity and even shame, especially since the transitioning process can have a traumatic effect on their wives and children. Demanding that the world recognize them as actual women is a strategy for absolving them of responsibility. If gender is an innate quality, like height or sexual orientation, how can they be morally responsible? Gender ideology is the tool they use to legitimize that emotional reflex. Their sudden rejection of their old life is reimagined as a mystical journey into their own gendered soul.

Of course, adults are free to act in this way—and to explain themselves to their friends and loved ones in whatever fashion they please. Unfortunately, this gender mysticism is romanticized in a way that makes the idea of transformation seem attractive to children, especially children struggling with identity and relationships.

Indeed, there is an especially ghoulish militant fringe within the autogynephilic subcategory that explicitly seeks to break family bonds in order to groom children for transition. This apparently includes notorious transgender cyclist Rachel McKinnon (rebranded recently as “Veronica Ivy”), who has appealed to children to “dump moms on Mother’s Day and join the ‘glitter-queer’ family of adult trans activists.”

I speak from experience when I say that it’s difficult for autogynephiles to admit the simple truth that they are simply heterosexual males who use the conceit of female self-identification as a means to rationalize their sexual attraction to a female version of themselves. As any sex therapist can attest, people often feel ashamed about unusual sexual proclivities. Shame is a powerful emotion, and a person who suffers from it often will be driven to control their narrative in a way that protects their sense of self-worth...

Rather than protect the emotional fragility of people who don’t want to investigate the nature of their autogynephilia, a better strategy would be to simply demystify and destigmatize autogynephilia itself (much as we have demystified and destigmatized any number of victimless paraphilias), while also ensuring that therapies are available for trans adults who understand the attendant medical ramifications. We should not need to pretend that we are women (to ourselves or anyone else) in order to find relief from gender dysphoria.

Cross-dressing—or transvestism as it once was called—is more common than some imagine: A 2005 study in the Journal of Sex and Marital Therapy found that almost three percent of Swedish men reported at least one episode of transvestic fetishism. Of course, this is not the same as being transgender. But since autogynephilia is associated with both the need to dress in women’s clothes and feminize one’s body, we can never fully demarcate the two. (Thus, an old joke in the community about transitioners who start out as occasional cross-dressers: “What’s the difference between a transvestite and a transsexual? About five years.”)

Unfortunately, many trans advocates would prefer to shoot the messenger, and a whole sub-industry of censorship and ostracism has been created to deal with anyone who casts doubt on the gender-identity framework. As many readers will know, Canadian feminist Meghan Murphy was thrown off Twitter, and is subject to constant harassment in regard to her live speaking events, because she spoke the plain truth of biology to a vexatious Vancouver-area individual who goes by the name Jessica Yaniv. Here in the UK, Katie Alcock and Helen Watts were both removed from leadership positions and expelled from Girlguiding UK for objecting to the inclusion of boys who identified as female in their single-sex organisation.

My transgender identity has not protected me from this censorship regime, and I have been excluded and shamed for my political statements (as I regard them). Both my employer and my professional associations have been contacted by activists who claim that my political views should disqualify me from being able to work with children (I’m a teacher), or represent my colleagues...

Not so long ago, we truly did live in a transphobic society, where people like me were subject to public abuse (or worse). And there are still scattered reports of actual transphobia. In extreme cases, trans people have been physically attacked, or even killed, because of who they are.

But on an everyday basis, many trans people are now more afraid, for their reputations and livelihoods, of the opposite threat: They are afraid of saying the wrong thing—which is to say, something based in truth and actual science—about who we are. For their own emotional purposes, members of a militant and vociferous group within our own ranks have found a way to embed a lie at the very heart of our public discussion about gender.

For the rest of society to acquiesce to this lie is not only a betrayal of science, but of democracy. And we must work to restore an attitude of honesty before more harm is done to women, children and trans people ourselves. When society realises that there is no rational basis for gender ideology, the backlash may be very severe indeed."

 

Links - 7th May 2024 (1 - Canadian Budget 2024)

The Trudeau government keeps blowing past its own program expense projections - "Since COVID-19, the federal government’s budgets have cumulatively upwardly revised program spending projections in a major way. Between budgets 2021 and 2024, program spending projections for the three fiscal years between 2022-23 and 2024-25 were consistently revised upwards by a cumulative amount of $142.8 billion...   “There is a very significant, measurable, empirical shift from a smaller government under both the Conservatives and the [previous] Liberals…to today,” says Ian Lee, professor in the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, referring to the previous government of prime minister Stephen Harper and the Liberal governments of prime minister Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin lasting from 1993 to 2006... he says the Trudeau government should take a page from the Chrétien government's playbook. During Canada's fiscal recovery in the 1990s, that government would project almost too conservatively.  “It was almost the mirror image of what we’re seeing here,” said Gray. The result, he describes, was a perceived surplus and a more favourable trading environment for Canada."

Federal budget 2024: Freeland to present new spending plan - "Remarking on the expectation of some form of individual wealth tax, and or excess profit taxes in today's budget, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said the fiscal document is "likely to be the worst" in decades and "pointing us in the wrong direction," when it comes to economic growth... backed by his caucus and in front of a placard that read “fix the budget” — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in so many words that Canadians can’t afford what’s coming... Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was emphatic on Monday, while speaking to a business crowd about what's to come, that his government feels now is the time to make investments(opens in a new tab) in housing, job growth, and other affordability measures preoccupying the minds of many pinched millennials and Generation Z."
Left wingers see social spending as "investment". They don't understand the difference between capex and opex

Freeland to present 2024 federal budget, promising billions in new spending : r/canada - "Comparing Trudeau 1 and 2 vs every other PM ever, and no matter how spending-happy another PM may have been they all seem hyper-conservative compared to the Trudeau family.  Hopefully, Canadians will remember this when Trudeau 3 takes their turn at the plate for draining the economy."
"I'm not sure what will be left of their father's 'post-nation' by the time one those toffs is crowned king or queen of the Liberals."
"The Trudeaus have been a plague on this country. It took us 50 years for Canada to recover from his father. I think we would be incredibly lucky to get off so easy after Justin."

Pierre Poilievre, "The Budget" on April 16th, 2024 - "Mr. Speaker, this is the ninth deficit budget since the Prime Minister said that budgets balance themselves. Everything he spends money on only gets worse.  He promised that these deficits would make housing affordable. Then rent, mortgage payments and down payments for buying a home doubled.  He said that food would become more affordable. Now it costs 30% more, and one in four children do not have access to a nutritious meal.  After nine deficits, the government is rich and the people are poor... This is the ninth deficit after the Prime Minister promised the budget would balance itself, and what did he do with the money? Everything he has spent on has become more expensive. He has doubled the rent, doubled mortgage payments, doubled the needed down payment for a home and forced 3,500 homeless encampments. In Halifax alone, one in four kids cannot afford food, and now he is adding $40 billion of new debt and new spending, which is $2,400 of new inflation.   That is why common-sense Conservatives will be voting against this pyromaniac firefighter who is pouring fuel instead of water on the inflationary fire he has set."

The Hub Reacts to the 2024 federal budget - "The deficit will sit at $39.8 billion this year, with a plan for it to drop to $20 billion by 2028. No path back to balance was projected.  While the suspected wealth tax or excess profit tax did not appear, the government will seek to gain $19.3 billion in revenue over the next five years through an increase in the capital gains tax for corporations and Canada’s highest earners. The Liberals also promised to build 3.9 million homes by 2031...   “This prime minister is not worth the cost,” said Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre...
Yesterday’s federal budget showed again—as if it were needed—that this government is not serious about public finances. It was late, given that the 2024/25 fiscal year started more than two weeks ago. It buried the numbers on revenue, expenses, deficit, and debt that ought to be upfront under 350-plus pages of spin. And while the numbers themselves look serious—relentlessly rising taxes and spending, chronic deficits, and interest eating ever more revenue—we have no reason to believe them.  Why would we? The government’s first projections for the current budget year of 2024/25 were in its 2019 fall economic statement. That statement showed federal spending of $421 billion in 2024/25. The government presented no budget at all in 2020—more evidence of unseriousness—and its 2020 fall statement removed some pension costs from the presentation—yet more evidence.  But if we add those pension costs back, the 2020 statement showed spending in 2024/25 at $429 billion. That was a small sign of bigger things to come. The 2021 fall statement projected 2024/25 spending at $465 billion. The 2022 fall statement said $505 billion. The 2023 fall statement said $522 billion. Yesterday’s budget shows 2024/25 spending at $538 billion—an eye-popping 28 percent more than what the government projected in 2019.  Are other projections in the 2024 budget any more believable? The main defence against further rises in the ratio of federal debt to GDP is additional revenue from higher capital gains taxes, the digital services tax and a global minimum tax. But, the digital services tax may never be implemented, and the legislation for the capital gains tax increases and the global minimum tax is not even written. Notwithstanding rhetoric about fairness for all generations, the likely outcome is bigger deficits and an even heavier debt load on the young. Canadians need many things from future federal governments, and treating public finance as though it matters heads the list. Tax hikes, rising debt and interest charges—these threats to our already stagnating living standards would not exist if the government did not now plan to spend $117 billion more than it projected in 2019. We need governments that take budgets seriously...
A proposed increase to the capital-gains inclusion rate from 50 percent to 67 percent. For individuals, this new inclusion rate applies to all capital gains over $250,000 per year. For corporations it applies to all capital gains. The government notes that this increase will only be relevant for fewer than 1 percent of taxpaying individuals. The bigger concern is that for corporations this higher inclusion rate amounts to an increase in the effective corporate tax rate, and thus an additional disincentive for Canadian businesses to invest—at a time when Canada’s low investment rate is already a primary cause of our low productivity levels and growth rates.  Overall, though, the bigger negative for this budget is at the macro level in how the various measures all add up. The federal government is showing itself to be both lazy and imprudent in budget 2024. The laziness is reflected in the government’s unwillingness to cut spending on low-priority items as it introduces new spending programs. The obvious result is the need for larger budget deficits or higher taxes, or both.   The government states that it is continuing to find and redeploy $15.8 billion worth of spending over five years. But in an overall budget of $500 billion per year, $3 billion annually is a drop in the bucket. Instead of doing the more difficult work of seriously reviewing the many existing programs and cutting the ineffective ones, the government took the easier route of simply expanding its total spending and having ongoing budget deficits...
Budget 2024 continued a long tradition for the current federal government: increasing spending above and beyond its own previous plans. We have seen this ratcheting-up in each and every budget, year after year, both before the COVID-19 pandemic and now long after...   But regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with any particular spending decision, the ability to focus on and deliver on what the government itself commits to is clearly in short supply. That should be concerning for more than just the fiscal consequences. It may mean that the quality of public services is undermined as the government shifts its focus to rolling out one new program after the next.   And, perhaps most unfortunately, it risks undermining public confidence in the government’s own projections. After all, they’re almost guaranteed to be tossed within a matter of months...
Instead of making it easier for landowners to decide they’d like to sell their land to developers for development, they’re going to increase the inclusion rate–the portion of capital gains on which tax is paid–from 50 percent to 66 percent. This of course makes it more expensive for landowners to sell their land.  We can expect this to have a material negative effect on land transactions and a concomitant reduction in new housing development.  Given that housing in Canada is very expensive and that it’s very expensive because there’s not enough of it, this policy change will help make a bad situation much worse...
Canada arguably has very little fiscal room to buffer a recession or exogenous shock...
Budget 2024 is a remarkable document in that it continues an upward ride in federal spending that is divorced from the country’s long-term economic productivity fundamentals...  missing here are the dynamic effects of an increase in capital gains and corporate taxes on economic activity. After all, higher tax rates alone will not be enough to raise revenues, if new wealth is not created. While expenditure forecasts are likely to be revised upwards, expect to see the revenue projections scaled back as the year unfolds. After all, how can Canada expect to see federal revenues rise faster than expenditures in an environment of declining productivity and rising taxes? There really are no words to describe the ride we have embarked on."

EDITORIAL: No free lunches — even for unicorns - "Like the other costly programs Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is foisting on the provinces, the latest national school food program is long on promises, short on details — and very big on costs. The program announced last week will cost $1 billion over five years and will, according to Trudeau, deliver meals to 400,000 children per year by the 2024-25 school year. And it’s doing so, apparently, by bypassing provincial governments. Trudeau and the Liberals are chasing unicorns. Magically, they expect us to believe that by September, the federal government — which has no mechanism by which it can deliver local programs — will set up kitchens, food storage and refrigeration and employ the staff in schools that don’t already have these programs. It’s starting to look as if the government sees itself as mommy and daddy to the nation’s children. Its $10-a-day daycare, an unnecessary Pharmacare plan, a costly dental plan and now his pledge to feed all students across the country — whether they need it or not — all send the message that the government considers itself better than parents when it comes to raising kids. Do you really want to put the people who brought you the $60-million ArriveCAN boondoggle in charge of feeding your children? If so, the lion’s share of the cash will go to cozy insiders and your kids will get the slops. This government doesn’t have a good track record of getting value for your tax dollars."
Obviously, if you think this is a bad idea, you're a heartless monster

Poll suggests half of Canadians have negative opinion of latest Liberal budget - "Just shy of half the respondents to Leger’s latest survey said they had a negative opinion of the federal budget, which was presented last Tuesday. Only 21 per cent said they had a positive opinion... Almost half the respondents, 47 per cent, said they want to see the government cut back on spending and programs to get the budget balanced as quickly as possible."

Chrystia Freeland vows to find the real killer of middle class dreams - "Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is now justifying tax increases by quoting from a U.S. Supreme Court decision almost a hundred years ago. “Taxes are what we pay for civilized society,” wrote Oliver Wendell Holmes in a 1927 decision. Federal U.S. tax in 1927 was in the low single digits, according to the Tax Foundation, an American organization that focuses on tax policy, as opposed to Canada today where the rate is anywhere from 15-33 per cent. Perhaps the increase is because we are having to pay more for that civilization. Another explanation is that governments, particularly this Liberal one, have forgotten what fiscal prudence entails... But if Freeland is going to lecture Canadians with a 1927 quote from Wendall Holmes, she might want to see if there are any other lessons she can learn as finance minister from the U.S. budget of the same year. In his 1927 Budget Message, President Calvin Coolidge began by remarking on the large number of tax reductions that had taken place over the previous six years. Tax cuts. Imagine. The Liberals have claimed to cut taxes for the middle-class but as the Fraser Institute has noted, it’s all smoke and mirrors. Eliminating a variety of tax credits, as the Liberals have done in recent years, offsets any gains in a lowering of personal income tax rates. “Despite claims to the contrary, Ottawa has increased personal income taxes on the overwhelming majority of middle-class Canadian families,” the Fraser Institute noted in a report in 2022. The U.S. 1927 budget went on, “Our housing problems are being cared far.” A far cry from today where even Justin Trudeau and Freeland admit that the dream of affording a home is out of reach for too many people — even after, or because of, eight years of Liberal politics. In 1927, Coolidge also enthused about the balanced budget. “To jeopardize our balanced budget,” said Coolidge, “is unthinkable.” Before being elected the Liberals promised a balanced budget by 2019/20. It never happened, of course. Instead, it was one deficit after another, after another, with no end in sight. For Coolidge, a balanced budget was a necessity... “We have provided for adequate national defence,” proclaimed Coolidge... When the finance minister tells you that after eight years of Liberal policy, the deck is stacked against young people and a middle-class life beyond them, you might want to believe her because it is her government that put it out of reach. And now Freeland is pontificating about increased taxes paying for our civilization — the one where young people can’t afford a home."

A government with no priorities, no anchors, and when it comes to growth, no clue - The Globe and Mail - "“The Canadian economy,” boasts the Trudeau government’s latest budget, “is doing better than expected.” Who expected it to do how much worse is left unsaid. But as the budget notes defiantly: “Our economy is growing.” Why, in fourth-quarter 2023, real GDP grew by – wait for it – “1 per cent on an annualized basis.” Barely moving, but … better than expected!  It remains unclear whether the government is unaware of how badly Canada’s economy has actually been performing, or whether it does not care, or whether it just does not know what to do about it. Possibly, it is a little of all three.  But faced with what is now generally conceded to be a growth crisis – an economy that, in per capita terms, has been shrinking for several quarters, stagnating for several years, and losing ground to other developed economies for several decades – the government has produced yet another budget with no serious proposals to address it. Certainly, there is plenty in the budget’s 430 pages addressed to everything else. As with its previous budgets or fall economic statements, the government has seized the opportunity afforded by the passage of a few months to add tens of billions annually to spending, even as it continues to pretend that spending is under control.  The trick, as I’ve tried to show on previous occasions, is to issue a series of multiyear projections in which spending always slopes ever so gently up, hoping no one will notice when the whole curve is periodically, and violently, wrenched skyward. The chart accompanying this column shows the results. Spending over the next several years is now projected to average $16-billion annually more than the track laid out in Budget 2023, and nearly $40-billion a year more than in Budget 2022... Assume that these projections are of any greater worth than all previous. How was this accomplished? Not, as we can see, because of some new commitment to fiscal discipline. Rather, it was by the simple expedient of raising taxes... Without this windfall, I calculate the deficit in the current fiscal year would be nearly $47-billion, versus the $40-billion forecast, leaving the debt-to-GDP ratio slightly higher, not lower, than last year’s 42.1 per cent. It’s not the end of the world either way, of course. But it is hardly the sort of thing a government would do if it were actually interested in encouraging investment, productivity or growth.  (Or fairness, for that matter: The reason capital gains are not taxed at the full rate is in recognition of the tax already paid on the same income at the corporate level, a fact the budget somehow neglects to mention.)  Indeed, there is not a single measure in the budget aimed at boosting investment generally – as opposed to the usual slew of measures aimed at diverting investment into the government’s favoured sectors: artificial intelligence, “clean” technologies and so on. Whatever their individual merits or demerits (we seem no closer to becoming a world power in AI, for all the money the government is throwing at it, than we are in electric-vehicle batteries), the notion that you can put a $3-trillion economy on a measurably higher growth track – let alone the kind of radical acceleration needed, in the face of Canada’s accumulating fiscal challenges – with a handful of tax credits, subsidies and state-directed investment funds is simply comical.  A similar sense of inadequacy pervades the document. There are some useful-sounding measures to increase the supply of housing (and some not-so-useful measures to increase the demand) but nothing like on the scale required. Defence spending will get a boost, but nowhere near as much, or as soon, as the gathering world security crisis demands.  If you have a hundred priorities, it is said, you have none. Having spread itself so thin, budget after budget, on less urgent matters, the government finds itself without the capacity to act on the two or three things that really demand its attention. Assuming it even had any intention of doing so."

Armon Shokravi on X - "Bad day for Entrepreneurship in Canada 🇨🇦👎. Capital gains tax rate is increasing from a 50% inclusion to 66%.  This increases the net capital gains tax rate from 27% to 36%...  Compared to the US which has a 20% capital gains tax rate (+ major incentives like QSBS)  In my conversations with Canadian entrepreneurs, it's clear: They're feeling less motivated to build businesses here when moving just a bit south could mean saving a lot more."

Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns - The Globe and Mail - "The first $250,000 of capital gains will continue to be taxed under an inclusion rate of 50 per cent for individuals. But for corporations, the new 67-per-cent rate will kick in on the first dollar of capital gains. This is important for physicians because most operate their practices as small businesses through medical professional corporations, which leaves them more sensitive to changes in capital-gains rules than a salaried worker might be. The CMA estimated in 2017 that 66 per cent of physicians practised through corporations."

Michael Warner on X - "~60K/307K corporations affected by capital gains changes are medical professional corps typically owned by individual MDs as their primary means of saving for retirement. Irrespective of where you side on the issue it's misleading to say that only 40,000 individuals are affected. To be clear, the 250K threshold is not available to physicians and other professionals who rely on corps for retirement. The higher tax rate applies to the first and every subsequent dollar of CG earned."
Ann Rolle 🍎🍏 on X - "End result: Canada loses more doctors. We can’t afford another hit on our healthcare system."
Damn conservative governments underfunding healthcare!

Why raising capital gains taxes makes sense—yes, really - "If profits are paid out as dividends, then a complicated formula leaves about 45 cents on the dollar in after-tax income for the individual. (Notice, this is very similar to the 47 cents on each dollar in wages paid to a high-income individual!)  But if the firm buys back some shares, then, as we saw above, 54 cents on the dollar in after-tax income is received by the individual. That creates a bias towards paying out corporate value through capital gains rather than dividends.  The trick to achieving equal treatment is to set the inclusion rate so roughly the same amount will be left for an individual after all taxes have been paid. It turns out, that’s roughly two-thirds"

We all benefit from lower capital gains taxes—even if you’re not rich - "Most observers, rightly so, have framed the measure as a tax on the so-called “ultra-wealthy”. In fact, the Liberal Party’s official X account used those exact words. It has since precipitated a predictable debate about tax fairness, redistribution, and so on... This line of thinking draws on the famous tax policy idea that “a dollar is a dollar is a dollar.” Why should one dollar be taxed differently than another?  What the proponents of this policy thinking seem to overlook is how important capital is to the productivity of an economy, and as importantly—in the context of this budget in particular—to the creation of housing...   To increase taxes on capital is to invariably decrease these spillover effects and the benefits derived from secondary recipients and the economy and society as a whole.   This is particularly true when we consider the housing crisis the country is currently facing. The crisis itself is in large part a result of insufficient capital. The secondary losers are the average Canadian family who currently can’t afford a home.  Ahead of this budget, the Trudeau government received significant praise for its bold Canada Housing Plan for recognizing the problem. Yet missing from that plan was something that seemed like an unintentional omission: any mention of the fact that housing only gets built when risk-taking individuals put their own capital at risk as the equity required to finance any new development.   It’s as if the government had failed to understand that housing—like any other product or service in the economy—does not get produced without capital. This budget confirmed that lack of understanding. Previous housing strategies—including the most recent Conservative election platforms from the 2019 and 2021 elections—have recognized that capital is so critical to housing creation that they proposed policies to significantly reduce, and almost eliminate, capital gains taxes on real estate transactions (so long as the proceeds are reinvested into real estate). The intent of this policy would have been to promote the sale of land for development and to promote the reinvestment of any proceeds back into the creation of new housing. Instead, in this budget the government has chosen quite the opposite... Let’s not be surprised when less of that capital is made available. Research on the deleterious effects of taxes on capital is well established. It’s intuitive after all. It’s the same principle that underpins the Trudeau government’s carbon tax policy. If you tax something, all things being equal, you will get less of it."

Monday, May 06, 2024

Links - 6th May 2024 (2 - Migrants)

Aylmer on X - "An Afghan illegal immigrant on the sex offenders register was granted refugee status, not despite being a sex offender but because he is a sex offender. His asylum claim was initially rejected but his lawyers successfully appealed on the grounds that his habit of public masturbation puts him at risk of "physical violence" if returned to Afghanistan. Refugee status gives a person five years of permission to stay in the UK with full access to the NHS, benefits and social housing."
Sex offender allowed to stay in UK - as more than half of appeals against asylum decisions successful - "The evidence of several doctors at his asylum appeal hearings stated that he "continues to act inappropriately towards females"... the majority of those who are unsuccessful do not return home, staying in Britain illegally.  On average, more than £34m of legal aid per year has been spent on asylum cases since 2017, according to figures from the Ministry of Justice.  The Sky News investigation comes on the same day a watchdog revealed aid spending on asylum seekers in the UK rose to £4.3bn in 2023... Sakhile, 47, claimed asylum in Britain 18 years ago after arriving from Zimbabwe, where she says her political views put her at risk of persecution. Over the years, she has filed four further claims which have all been unsuccessful.  At no point has she ever been threatened with removal. "They just send letters and ask you if you want to go voluntarily," she says.  Analysis of Home Office data by the Migration Observatory shows almost two-thirds, or 55,273 people, who were refused asylum were not recorded as having left the UK in the decade from 2011. That figure - which represents 61% of all failed asylum seekers - could be even higher as it does not include partners or children.  Abdul Ezedi, an Afghan man who carried out a chemical attack on a woman and two children in Clapham, was twice rejected by the Home Office but remained in the country.  Despite being on the Sex Offenders' Register, he was granted asylum on appeal after claiming he had converted to Christianity and would be at risk of persecution in Afghanistan.  Religious conversion is just one reason an appeal can succeed.  Sky News has examined court papers that identify "Westernisation" as an argument made by people whose length of stay in the UK while awaiting a decision means they would face persecution in their home countries. One Iraqi Kurdish family said their daughter was used to living "as a Western woman".  The judge said: “If this family were transplanted from Liverpool to Baghdad, and carried on living in the way they live here, they would quickly encounter problems.” In an interview with Sky News earlier this month, science minister Andrew Griffith MP said: "We can't run an asylum system based on credulous clerics and lefty lawyers.""
"Westernisation" (staying in the UK for too long) is another reason cited to allow them to stay. So...

JACK ANDERTON on X - "15-year-old Richard Everitt was stabbed to death in 1994 by a gang of Bangladeshis because he was white.   2/3 of the gang were sentenced, the third, Abdul Hai, was acquitted by the jury on the direction of the judge.   He was an elected Labour councillor in Camden until 2022.  He co-chairs a task force with Keir Starmer to improve youth safety'."

Meme - Oli London @OliLondonTV: "Ramadan lights and decorations including the Islamic Star and Crescent have been placed all the way down London's busiest shopping street, Oxford Street, to mark the Ramadan Islamic holy month. Only 6.5% of people in the UK are Muslim."

Meme - "Londres en 732 si Charles Martel n'avait pas été là:"

Mohamed came to Australia as a teenager. Now, he faces being deported to a country he doesn’t know
Mohamed came to Australia as a teenager. Now, he faces being deported to a country he doesn’t know | Australia news | The Guardian : r/australia - "How unsurprising that nowhere in the article is it mentioned that he was part of a gang that organised a fight with a rival group of young men at a train station where he proceeded to stab someone in the chest, pled guilty and spent time in prison.  Deporting violent criminals is exactly the sort've deterrent that should happen in cases like these."
Mohamed came to Australia as a teenager. Now, he faces being deported to a country he doesn’t know | Australia news | The Guardian : r/australia - "Its so much worse, he was a 22 year old who came to a fight amongst high-school kids and stabbed a fucking 13 year old boy."
Mohamed came to Australia as a teenager. Now, he faces being deported to a country he doesn’t know | Australia news | The Guardian : r/australia - "According to the court documents:  He was shown video footage of himself holding a knife and instructed he would probably get a better sentence if he pled guilty since there was good evidence against him. There was also allegedly evidence that he organised the fight between his crew and a rival gang.  He then went on to claim he had found the knife at the station, discarded it at the shops, then picked it up to run to the fight. Hey then later holds cops he didn't have a knife in the fight. He then claimed that in Sierra Leone a pocket knife isn't a knife, it's a key holder, so he mistook the police question. He then claimed he found the knife during the fight.   Later in he claimed that the first counsel gave him bad advice when they suggested he plea guilty to get his time down based on the high likelihood of conviction.   The justice made notes that his testimony changed frequently.and in a way that was opportunistic and in line with lying frequently.   You know what guys and girls - I feel for his girlfriend and mother, but this kid fucked up real bad by carrying a knife to a fight he organised and then allegedly stabbing someone in the chest. He then allegedly spent his time lying to the cops and court and got called out. The girlfriend and mother shouldn't be given a media platform for this case in my opinion."
Mohamed came to Australia as a teenager. Now, he faces being deported to a country he doesn’t know | Australia news | The Guardian : r/australia - ""Don't deport me to Sierra Leone, I know nothing of the place"
"Sorry, in Sierra Leone a pocket knife isn't a knife""

End Wokeness on X - "Venezuela has its lowest homicide rate in 22 years because their gangs are coming here. Read that again and let it sink in."
Elon Musk on X - "The ability to discard your identification documents (from any country), walk across the southern border and claim “asylum” has turned America into a refuge for the world’s worst criminals!"

Girl, 14, left in coma after attack by teenagers outside school in France - "The French government has launched an urgent investigation after a 14-year-old girl was severely wounded and left in a coma after being beaten outside her school by three other teenagers in the south of France.  The three alleged attackers, including a girl who was at the same school as the victim in the suburbs of the southern city of Montpellier, have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder of a minor.  The incident comes at a time of heightened tensions around French schools and after dozens of messages threatening attacks were sent through an internal messaging system.  The victim, named as Samara, had come out of her coma but was “seriously wounded” in the attack on Tuesday afternoon outside Arthur Rimbaud college in the district of La Mosson-La Paillade, prosecutors said.  One of the accused is a girl from the same school, also 14, who was arrested on Wednesday and admits to having beaten the victim, the prosecutors said in a statement on Wednesday. The two other minors arrested are aged 14 and 15... Her mother, Hassiba, said in media interviews that her daughter had been bullied by a fellow pupil for two and a half years, raising the possibility this could have been over her behaviour and clothing being deemed un-Islamic.  “I don’t actually understand this child’s reasons for constantly attacking Samara, but there is something. I think it’s … the fact that she [Samara] … is maybe a little more liberated than some students,” she told BFMTV.  She accused this classmate of being the “sponsor” of the attack and claimed that this schoolgirl had been suspended for two days in June 2023, in particular after having published a photo of her daughter on social networks calling for her to be raped."
"My hijab, my choice"

Gad Saad on X -"Noble Immigrants: Please, please, please. We wish to escape our dreadful societies. We wish to have a new start in your beautiful countries. We just want a chance to succeed like anyone else. Please, please, please. Let us in.
The West: Come in. Make yourself at home.
Noble Immigrants [Once in, and in sufficient numbers]: We despise your values. We hate your way of life. We are disgusted by your religious beliefs. We will change your vile society into the one from which we came. You disgust us, you vile vile pigs.
The West: Thank you. We have so much to learn from you about tolerance. Let us continue on our path of suicidal empathy because we are good, compassionate, and kind people."

Home Office blasted for attempting to re-educate staff on Britain's historic migration levels - "The Home Office has been accused of spouting 'arrant nonsense as it tells staff a third of Britain's population once consisted of migrants...  “Historians argue about the start of migration, but we know that during the Roman Empire in Britain (43-410), up to one third of people living in Britain were migrants.”  However, historian Rafe Heydel-Mankoo told GB News the claim is “arrant nonsense”. He said: “The foreign born / migrant population of Roman Britain was closer to 3% of the population. This is a clear attempt to advance the myth that Britain has always been a nation of immigrants.”  Home Office civil servants were also shown a video called “The beginnings of Racist Ideology” in which it was claimed “The modern idea of racial identity seems to have started in Portugal in the sixteenth century”.  The claims were made in official Home Office online diversity training focussing on “Britain's migration and colonial history”... “Indeed, when Portuguese merchants and explorers first arrived in Japan, the Japanese referred to them as barbarians and depicted them as monkeys.”  “The Japanese attempted to draw superior racial distinctions between themselves and others long before they encountered Western concepts of racial science,” Mr Heydel-Mankoo said.  The historian continued: “Anti-black racism in the Arab world has existed for well over 1,000 years, in large part due to the Islamic slave trade, which saw millions of Africans enslaved and brought to the Muslim world. Whilst the Koran is silent on race, in practice, sub-Saharan Africans were regarded as the lowest and most detestable slave strata.”... Home Office diversity training asks civil servants to think of three diversity initiatives every day, and offers “trigger support” if staff read about slavery... The module fails to mention Britain's role in ending the slave trade, which historians estimate freed 100,000s of Africans from slavery."

Steven Edginton on X - "Exclusive: Home Office tells staff racial identity is a Portuguese invention from 16th century...
@NigelBiggar: "The suggestion that racial prejudice was invented by Europeans is nonsense"
Home Office diversity training on "Britain's migration and colonial history” features a video called “The beginnings of Racist Ideology” which claims: “The modern idea of racial identity seems to have started in Portugal in the sixteenth century”.
@RafHM: “Anti-black racism in the Arab world has existed for well over 1,000 years, in large part due to the Islamic slave trade, which saw millions of Africans enslaved and brought to the Muslim world. Whilst the Koran is silent on race, in practice, sub-Saharan Africans were regarded as the lowest and most detestable slave strata.”"
ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩 on X - "Here’s famous North African Philosopher Ibn Khaldun writing on race in the 14th Century, some 200 years before the height of the Portuguese Voyages of Exploration
We know that the Zanj (blacks) are the least intelligent and the least discerning of mankind, and the least capable of understanding the consequences of actions... Beyond [known peoples of Black West Africa] to the south, there is no civilization in the proper sense. There are only humans who are closer to dumb animals than to rational beings. They live in thickets and caves and eat herbs and unprepared grain. They frequently eat each other. They cannot be considered human beings."

A 39-year-old Pole was shot dead in Stockholm after drawing attention to a group of youth. : r/europe - "A 39-year-old Pole was shot dead in Stockholm after drawing attention to a group of youth. He died in front of his 12-year-old son. The case outraged politicians and society  The man's nationality was confirmed to PAP on Thursday by the man's brother-in-law , who said that the family is currently going through difficult times. According to media reports, a Pole living in Stockholm, while on his way with his child to a swimming pool in the Skarholmen district, met a group of young people . In the tunnel under the viaduct, words were exchanged between the man and the teenagers, and then a fatal shot was fired at him.  Outrage in the media: The newspapers "Aftonbladet" and "Expressen" write that the man showed a civic attitude and had already contacted the police regarding youth groups that trade drugs. " He did not want his son to grow up in such an environment, " the media concludes.  The police refused to comment on the perpetrator's motives. No one has been arrested yet. On Thursday, people gather at the site of the tragedy, lay flowers and light candles. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is also scheduled to arrive to - as he wrote in a statement - "instill courage (in people)." "We will never give up. We will defeat the gangs," he declared.  Politicians react to the death of a Pole: They write about the "war on gangs"  The head of the Sweden Democrats party, Jimmie Akesson, wrote in a comment on the X platform that "clichés are not enough, and it is time for Sweden to declare war on every gang member". Since the beginning of March, two other shootings have occurred in the Skarholmen district, leaving one person dead and another injured."
Swedish PM on shooting: 'Another line has been crossed' - "Speaking at the scene of the shooting, Ulf Kristersson, the Prime Minister of Sweden, said: "It's a kind of inhumane, an animalistic attitude. We just can't have this.""
Damn Islamophobia, xenophobia and racism!

Inquisitive Bird on X - "A 2012 study of 239 street gang members in Sweden found that 76% were first- or second-generation immigrants, and 24% were born in Sweden to Swedish parents. For context, in 2012, 27% of the Swedish population was either first- or second-generation immigrants."
An Exploratory Analysis of Swedish Street Gangs: Applying the Maxson and Klein Typology to a Swedish Gang Dataset

Ada Lluch 🇪🇸 on X - "I’m on a bus in Spain and my grandma made me a sandwich with jamón ibérico for the ride.  The man next to me, a man from Morocco, told me that I shouldn’t eat that next to him because his religion does not allow for him to eat pork.  ….REALLY?!?!?  We are in España!  The national food here is jamón ibérico!  Something is seriously wrong with people!"

The Economic Arguments for Paying Parents - The Atlantic - "As a wealthy nation, the United States will likely have the option of relying on immigration to delay some of these problems—if it can sustain the political will to embrace it. Foreign-born people account for a much more substantial share of the population in Australia (29 percent), Canada (21 percent), Switzerland (30 percent), Austria (19 percent), and Sweden (18 percent) than they do in the United States (14 percent). But even immigration is not a permanent solution to the problems of low fertility. The forces prompting people have fewer children are not unique to the United States. Countries in Europe and East Asia have recorded low fertility for decades, and now the rest of the world is following suit. In 2019, about half of the global population lived in areas with below-replacement fertility. Fertility remains high in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Oceania, but is falling and is expected to continue doing so, for all of the same reasons it has fallen elsewhere: urbanization, the importance of education in industrialized economies, and women’s increasing access to employment and birth control... Demographers have had a tough time teasing out the role of specific policies in boosting fertility... The experiences of developed countries, taken together, suggest that small cash transfers or short parental leaves are unlikely to significantly increase fertility rates, Leonard Lopoo, a public-policy professor at Syracuse University who studies the fertility effects of family policies, told me. Benefits that remove significant financial obstacles—the cost of child care, medical bills for prenatal care and giving birth, or college tuition—and prevent parents from having to leave their jobs are most likely to persuade someone to have a child, he said.  Still, the fertility-boosting effects of successful family policies are usually marginal, which has led to some head-scratching among demographers"
So much for the US being the most immigrant-heavy country in the world

Adil Rashid: Paedophile claimed his Muslim upbringing meant 'he didn't know it was illegal to have sex with a girl of 13' - "A muslim who raped a 13-year-old girl he groomed on Facebook has been spared a prison sentence after a judge heard he went to an Islamic faith school where he  was taught that women are worthless.  Adil Rashid, 18, claimed he was not aware that it was illegal for him to have sex with the girl because his education left him ignorant of British law... such crimes usually result in a four to seven-year prison sentence.   But the judge said that because Rashid was ‘passive’ and ‘lacking assertiveness’, sending him to jail might cause him ‘more damage than good’.  Rashid, from Birmingham, admitted he had sex with the girl, saying he had been ‘tempted by her’ after they met online...   He told police he knew the girl was 13 but said he was initially reluctant to have sex before relenting after being seduced... Rashid had ‘little experience of women’ due to his education at an Islamic school in the UK, which cannot be named for legal reasons.  After his arrest, he told a psychologist that he did not know having sex with a 13-year-old was against the law. The court heard he found it was illegal only when he was informed by a family member.   In other interviews with psychologists, Rashid claimed he had been taught in his school that ‘women are no more worthy than a lollipop that has been dropped on the ground’...   ‘It was made clear to you at the school you attended that having sexual relations with a woman before marriage was contrary to the precepts of Islam,’ he said.  Addressing Rashid, the judge said: ‘I accept this was a case where the girl was quite willing to have sexual activity with you. But the law is there to protect young girls, even though they are perfectly happy to engage in sexual activity.’"
I thought ignorance of the law was no excuse
Isn't it Islamophobic to say Muslims have poor understanding of the law and are taught misogynistic things?
The feminists who get very upset when there's "victim blaming" were quiet here, of course

Iran blamed for 'stirring the pot' by stoking school protests in UK - "It highlighted a series of protests condemning apparent instances of blasphemy, linking them to the alleged influence of the Islamic Republic regime on British Muslims. Two of the cases it discussed were the 2021 Batley Grammar School protests and the demonstrations over The Lady Of Heaven film in 2022, which Policy Exchange said 'serve as an indication that de facto blasphemy codes can be enforced on the streets if protesters commit to doing so'. Dr Paul Stott, head of security and extremism at the think tank, told The Times that Iran has 'encouraged an atmosphere which anything that smacks of blasphemy leads to intimidation'. The report further said that Iran is threatening Britain's security and values by sending radical regime-sponsored clerics to a 'nerve centre' in west London. The hardline Islamic Republic of Iran has spent decades 'curating a politico-religious infrastructure in Britain' focused on the Islamic Centre of England (ICEL) – a registered UK charity based in a converted cinema in Maida Vale, a study by Policy Exchange found. It suggests Iran is using the centre as a base from which to 'undermine our values and impose blasphemy codes'. It says the director of ICEL is appointed by Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, suggesting the centre 'is not merely some dry, arid religious institution' but rather 'sits at the centre of a substantial network of Iranian influence operations within this country'... A string of senior clerics trained by and loyal to the Iranian regime have been able to travel freely between Tehran and London – even when Iran has imprisoned British citizens such as Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe – the report, entitled 'Tehran calling: The Iranian threat to the UK', said. The UK has a long-standing policy of issuing visas for Iranian clerics to work in Britain, it says, claiming 100 such visas were handed out between 2005 and 2022. The report also hit out at MI5 for apparently abandoning its 'core task' of counter-subversion at a time when Iran is trying 'to influence political, religious, educational or cultural organisations, or shape contemporary protest movements, to its own ends'."
Xenophobia! Islamophobia! Racism! Time to crack down even more on the "far right"

Dane on X - "Finland imported 100,000 men from Africa and Afghanistan, now they find it necessary to spend $3.9 million to make videos meant to teach savages not to r-ape Finnish women (and men).  After a full year of showing these public service announcements to the migrants, sexual-offenses in Finland grew by 22.5%.   So far, in 2024 the offenses have grown an additional 20%. When asked if the videos were at all effective, consensus was the clips were a "turn on" for most of them."
Nugs_News_Feed on X - "So as recently as 2022 all five political parties in Finland were headed up by women.   I think I’m seeing Finland’s governance issue…"

Meme - Sam Stockman @SeriousStockman: "Migrants are raping their way through Europe, all the stats show it. @smerconish"
"Development of sexual assault crimes in Finland in selected years from 1960 to 2022"
Clearly, the definition of sexual assault gets changed each year, which is why the numbers steadily increased from 1960 to 2021

Josh Hawley alleges Alejandro Mayorkas illegally paroled Laken Riley's killer, accuses him of ‘lying’ - "Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley alleged that Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas released Laken Riley’s killer, Jose Antonio Ibarra, citing that there was no space to hold him. Hawley appeared before the Senate on Thursday, April 18, and read parts of Ibarra’s confidential immigration file. He exposed the fact that Homeland Security released Ibarra on parole. “Now we all know that the reason he was paroled into this country is because of lack of detention capacity, which you and I both know is not a valid reason,” Hawley told Mayorkas. The file disclosed by the senator stated that Ibarra, who entered the US illegally in September 2022, was paroled. He appeared before immigration authorities in New York only in July 2023. When he provided his fingerprints, it was determined that he had a criminal record. In the past, he had been "charged with acting in a manner to injure a child less than 17 and a motor vehicle license violation,” the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement had previously said.  “He had a criminal record to start with, he’s in the country on illegal grounds, you have falsely and illegally allowed him in, he commits a crime against a child, it’s expunged,” Hawley said.  Hawley revealed that Ibarra applied for a permit to work in the US illegally in November. The Department of Homeland Security approved this in December, despite knowing about his criminal record. Hawley also took to X to express his anger over the issue, writing, “Here’s the truth. Mayorkas illegally paroled Laken Riley’s killer into the US. He had a criminal record. He then committed a crime against a child in New York. No prosecution. In fact, HE GOT A WORK PERMIT. And then he killed Laken. Mayorkas knew *all* this. He lied about it”."

French immigration bill tightens welfare benefits for foreigners - "ANNUAL IMMIGRATION POLICY STATEMENT
LONGER DELAYS FOR NON-EU FOREIGNERS TO GET WELFARE
REFORM OF STATE MEDICAL CARE FOR NON-EU FOREIGNERS
RESIDENCY PERMITS TO SOLVE LABOUR SHORTAGES
BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP NO LONGER AUTOMATIC
WITHDRAWAL OF NATIONALITY
FAMILY REUNIFICATION RULES TIGHTENED
SANCTIONS FOR COUNTRIES WHO DO NOT TAKE BACK IMMIGRANTS
FOREIGN STUDENTS GUARANTEE DEPOSIT
PREVENTIVE DETENTION FOR ASYLUM SEEKERS"

French doctors vow to ‘disobey’ bill stripping undocumented migrants of healthcare rights - "Medical practitioners voiced their dismay in a flurry of media statements after senators from the right-wing Les Républicains amended a government-sponsored immigration bill last week to axe a scheme known as State Medical Aid (AME) – which provides free healthcare to undocumented migrants who have settled in France.  The amended bill, which will be examined by the National Assembly next month, was swiftly panned by health officials, who warned that it would present a threat to public health and that long-term costs would far exceed any initial savings.  The head of the Paris hospital consortium AP-HP said scrapping the AME would allow diseases to spread undected and ultimately increase the burden on France’s health system. The Federation of French Hospitals (FHF) described it as “humanitarian, sanitary and financial heresy”.  On Saturday, some 3,500 health workers signed a letter pledging to “continue to treat undocumented patients free of charge and based on their needs, in accordance with the Hippocratic Oath” they took. “Patients from here and elsewhere, our doors are open to you. And will remain so,” they added.  That would effectively mean working for free, said Antoine Pelissolo, a psychiatrist at a hospital east of Paris who co-authored the letter. “If they see a patient who is not covered (by health insurance), they will not be paid,” Pelissolo told AFP. “It's a very strong stand.”"
Looks like medical tourism to France is going up

Enoch Powell's "Rivers of Blood" Speech at 50 - The Atlantic - "On April 20, 1968, Enoch Powell, a leading member of the Conservative Party in the British parliament, made a speech that would imprint itself into British memory—and divide the nation with its racist, incendiary rhetoric. Speaking before a group of conservative activists, Powell said that if immigration to Britain from the country’s former colonies continued, a violent clash between white and black communities was inevitable. “As I look ahead,” Powell said, “I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood,’” an allusion to a line in Virgil’s Aeneid. He maintained that it would not be enough to close Britain’s borders—some of the immigrants already settled in the country would need to be sent “home.” If not, he declared, attributing a quote to one of his constituents, “in this country, in 15 or 20 years’ time, the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”"

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